With the November midterm elections approaching, the political winds are picking up—and you may be wondering what the results could mean for your investments and retirement plans.
Elections bring plenty of headlines, predictions, and strong opinions. When the waters feel unsettled, historical perspective and a sound financial plan can help us stay on course. Here are three things to keep in mind.
1. Election results alone don’t determine the market’s direction.
Changes in Washington can influence taxes, government spending, and regulation. However, investment returns also depend on corporate earnings, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and global events. Which party controls Congress is only one of many forces affecting the markets.
2. Markets have historically performed better after midterm elections—but averages are not forecasts.
U.S. Bank research covering midterm elections from 1900 through 2025 found that U.S. stocks returned an average of 2.9% during the twelve months before an election and 12.4% during the twelve months afterward.1
That is encouraging historical context, but it does not tell us what will happen this time. Each election takes place amid different economic and market conditions, and stocks have not risen after every midterm. First, of course, is that “past results are not indicative of future performance.” (You know this already, but it’s always worth repeating. Just because the markets typically perform a certain way does not mean they always do.) Plus, you never have to look hard to find potential for future volatility.
Even after the votes are counted, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, and global developments will continue to influence the markets. A favorable historical average does not mean investors should overlook the risks on the horizon.
3. Uncertainty often affects investors more than the election results themselves.
One possible reason markets have historically performed better after midterms is that the results remove some uncertainty about the direction of government policy. With greater clarity, businesses and investors may feel more comfortable making decisions.
Think about navigating unfamiliar waters in a heavy fog. Even with a capable crew and a seaworthy vessel, you naturally slow down when you cannot clearly see what lies ahead. Once the fog lifts, it becomes easier to regain your bearings and move forward with confidence.
Financial uncertainty can produce a similar response. It may cause us to hesitate, second-guess our plans, or make a sudden change simply to regain a sense of control.
That is why a clear financial plan matters. It serves as your chart and compass when conditions become unsettled, helping you make decisions based on your goals, income needs, time horizon, and comfort with risk.
Before making a significant investment change, consider:
- When will I need this money?
- How much market fluctuation can I comfortably handle?
- Have my circumstances or long-term goals changed?
- Will this decision help me stay on course toward the future I want?
At Windjammer Wealth Advisory, we help clients navigate these questions and prepare for changing conditions. We watch the horizon, monitor developments, and adjust the sails when appropriate. Your retirement, your family, and the life you want to lead remain the destination guiding every decision.
Having helped individuals and families through many elections and market cycles, I understand how unsettling uncertainty can feel. My role is to help you separate meaningful developments from short-term noise and make thoughtful decisions about the course ahead.
If the upcoming election or market uncertainty has you wondering whether your investments are still aligned with your goals, reply to this email. Whether you have a specific question or would benefit from a broader financial review, I would be happy to talk with you.
We cannot control the winds, but with a sound plan, we can adjust the sails and continue moving toward your goals.
Your Financial Navigator,
Johannes
Source
1 U.S. Bank Asset Management Group Research, “How Midterm Elections Affect the Stock Market,” 2026. Analysis of Bloomberg market data covering 31 midterm elections, using the Dow Jones Industrial Average through 1928 and the S&P 500 thereafter. www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-performance-after-midterm-elections.html